It’s All About the Tour
Just what you wanted — more Tour de France predictions. But with the greatest race on the planet starting tomorrow, I would be remiss if I didn’t put my predictions for Le Grand Boucle on paper. Prognosticating is not a strong suit, but I am fairly confident that there will be a tour, that there will be at least ten guys who will get tossed for doping, that Trek will sell at least 50,000 bikes in the US in the next three weeks and that for the same period Central Park will resemble a sunflower field in the south of France given the number of Freds who will be sporting yellow jerseys. Be on the lookout for that especially wonderful yellow jersey/Astana shorts combo. Other than that and the ubiquitous French win on Bastille Day, it’s a roll of the dice.
Le Grand Boucle 2009
I’ve decided to test my sageliness by also having my computer randomly pick the winners as well (those predictions you’ll see in parenthesis):
The Jerseys and Other Important Prizes
- Yellow Jersey – Lance Armstrong, Astana (Computer says: Denis Menchov, Rabobank); The brain is saying Contador, Contador, Contador, Contador. That said, do you really want to bet against Armstrong in a Tour? You do remember that last time he made a comeback at the tour
- Green Jersey – Oscar Freire, Rabobank (Frank Schleck, Saxo Bank); No Boonen and Cavendish should be resting at home comfortably when Freire hits the Champs d’Elysees where he narrowly nips Thor Hushovd, Cervelo
- Polka Dot Jersey – Andy Schleck, Saxo Bank (Sergui Ivanov, Katusha); Who cares about this ever since Jalabert showed the climbing competition has nothing to do with climbing? Forced to, I chose Schleck who will get in enough breaks to win by default
- Jacky Durand Award for relentlessly attacking and instigating the ensuing early breakaways – Jens Voigt, Saxo Bank, (insert name, Saxo Bank)
- Cadel Evans Award for pointless attacks that don’t succeed which make you think the guy is a contender when he is a pretender – Cadel Evans, Silence-Lotto (Cadel Evans, Silence-Lotto)
- Bobby Julich Award to potential podium guy who never attacks – Levi Leipheimer, Astana (Christian Vandevelde, Garmin-Slipstream); Okay, so this is a statement about the Giro and the ridiculous American cycling media who continually talk about Leipheimer as if he’s an elite champion. If the Giro showed anything it’s that he’ll win every Tour of California ever and that’s all he’ll win
The Stages
- Stage 1 (ITT) – Armstrong (Amets Txurruka, Euskatel); Climb gives it to Armstrong over Cancellara
- Stage 2 – Mark Cavendish, Columbia-High Road (Vladimir Efimkin, AG2R); Cavendish will want to show Giro loses to Pettachi were a fluke, even if they weren’t
- Stage 3 – Cavendish (Matteo Tosatto, Quick Step); If he’s on, he’s pretty much unbeatable
- Stage 4 (TTT) – Garmin-Slipstream (Cofidis); Although those voices in my head keep saying Astana
- Stage 5 – Hushovd (Kurt Arvesen, Saxo Bank)
- Stage 6 – Alessandro Ballan, Lampre (Leonardo Duque, Cofidis); Uphill finish lends itself to World Champ who wants to make his mark after missed Classics season
- Stage 7 – Robert Gesick, Rabobank (Franco Pellizotti, Liquigas); First day in the mountains normally reserved for Armstrong, but it’s fairly early
- Stage 8 – Christophe Le Mevel, FDJ (Marcin Sapa, Lampre); Early break which is slowly but surely brought back, Le Mevel gets away for good
- Stage 9 – A. Schleck (Peter Velits, Milran); With the Tourmalet so far from the finish, Schleck will go for the Polka Dot points and the stage win will follow
- Stage 10 – Thomas Voeckler, BBOX (Voight); It’s Bastille Day and it’s rolling terrain, so it sets up perfectly for Voeckler. Without radios, expect to see lots of puzzled looks and funny hand gestures in the peloton
- Stage 11 – Freire (Stuart O’Grady, Saxo Bank)
- Stage 12 – Cavendish (David Loosli, Lampre); Up and down all day long, but Cavendish has one last match to burn
- Stage 13 – No winner as riders protest unsafe conditions from being forced to think without radios (Alessandro Vanotti, Liquigas)
- Stage 14 – Tyler Farrar, Garmin-Slipstream (Nicolas Vogondy, Agritubel); Yet another sprint finish
- Stage 15 – Oscar Periero, Caisse d’Epargne (Christophe Moreau, Agritubel); Too far from Paris for GC contenders
- Stage 16 – F. Schleck (Heinrich Haussler, Cervelo); Having helped brother Andy solidify his lead in the polka dot jersey early in the day, Frank gets his reward with a stage win
- Stage 17 – Carlos Sastre,Cervelo (Bradley Wiggins, Garmin-Slipstream); Everyone will be looking to put time into anyone they can
- Stage 18(ITT) – Armstrong (Rigoberto Uran, Colombia); Let the games begin
- Stage 19 – Voigt (Chris Anker Sorensson, Saxo Bank); GC contenders rest up for Ventoux
- Stage 20 – Armstrong (Fabian Wegman, Milram); Armstrong has never won on Mt. Ventoux, until now
- Stage 21 – Marzio Bruseghin, Lampre (Bart Grabsch, Columbia-High Road); It’ll be a sprint, so Bruseghin is unlikely, but it would be nice to see
It should be an interesting Tour this year, if only to see what happens how the Armstrong-Contador situation will play out. Nice to Johan Brunyeel.
I’m taking bets on whether or not my computer beats me. Actually, I’m putting my money on the computer.
And that’s today’s view from the back.
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